THE INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECTS OF GOLD & OIL WORLD PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATE ON THE TOTAL INDEX OF TEHRAN STOCK EXCHANGE USING ARDL METHOD

Abstract

The aim of the article is investigating the relation of macroeconomy factors on total index of stock exchange of Tehran. In this research variable of world price of OPEC, gold and exchange rate were applied. Data were analyzed monthly during 2008to2013 using economic method. ARDL results of auto-regression along with distribution pauses of test indicate a long-term relation between the variables mentioned and total stock. The results indicate a positive and meaningful effect in OPEC world price in long-term on index of total stock exchange of Tehran. But world price of gold has had a positive and meaningless on index of total stock. It seems that increase of exchange rate in long-term can increase profit of exported-orientation industries and increase of income and profitability is followed by stock market advancement. Also increase of oil world price in long-term caused advancement of stock market. Estimated coefficient of error correction model also shows a very high short-term adjusting speed towards long-term balance.