Effect of climate change on agricultural product in Nigeria

Abstract

This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to empirically investigate the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Nigeria between 1986 and 2024. The inflation rate, food production, annual rainfall, and carbon emissions are the model's primary explanatory variables. Long-term findings show that food production, rainfall, and carbon emissions all have a significant positive impact on agricultural output, while inflation has a negligible negative impact. In the short term, carbon emissions remain a significant determinant, while rainfall and food production have mixed and largely insignificant effects. The findings support the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables, emphasising the importance of climate change dynamics in shaping agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Although climate variability poses a threat to agricultural stability, the study concludes that targeted adaptation strategies can mitigate negative consequences while also promoting food security. It promotes climate-friendly agricultural practices, emission-reduction policies, farmer assistance programs, and a comprehensive climate-agriculture policy framework.