Population growth and fertility decisions nexus in Nigeria

Abstract

The study of the relationships between population growth and fertility has gained attention, given the prominent role of population transition (changes in mortality, fertility, and population structure) is playing. The study investigated the relationship between population growth rate and total fertility rate. Specifically, the study examined the impact of female education, infant mortality rate, and health expenditure on total fertility rate, as well as determining if there exists a feedback impact between population growth and fertility rate in Nigeria. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag and SVAR estimation approach over the period 2000 to 2023. The findings revealed that Nigeria's overall fertility rate was positively impacted by population increase, female education, and unemployment rate. On the other hand, health spending was found to negatively impact on fertility rate. Also, while population growth was found to have a significantly positive impact on fertility rate, having the highest magnitude, fertility rate was found to have a positive and insignificant impact on population growth rate. The study therefore advocated for an effective policy of family planning, an increase in female education, as well as an increase in public awareness to reduce the population growth rate and hence the fertility rate.